A Preview by Steve Carey
The greatest rugby competition is back, and Ireland’s poor showing against champions France in the opener has them under early scrutiny. Steve Carey wonders whether this marks the beginning of Ireland’s decline…
Whoever said ‘Never waste a good crisis’ may have had Ireland’s 2026 Six Nations in mind. The competition has barely got going and already Ireland have one to call their very own. Down a daunting 29-0 to a rampant France early in the second half, a nightmare opening looked near certain. As it was, they recovered, a little, to win the second half 14-10, ending up 36-14, but it was a clear-cut case of too little too late: the hosts, reigning champions, having collected the win and the bonus point, had the cue back in the rack and were already in the taxi on the way home. Thanks for coming.
Ahead of Thursday night’s opener (Friday morning here), Coach Andy Farrell, not long back after a successful secondment defeating Australia with a largely Irish, predominantly Leinster Lions squad, faced spot fires on no fewer than five fronts. The first is injury: human Swiss Army knife Mack Hansen (Connacht) was already out for the season with foot surgery, and Farrell had gaps to plug at loose-head, with Andrew Porter, Paddy McCarthy and Jack Boyle (all Leinster) out, forcing a call up for untested 20-year-old Billy Bohan (Connacht). Tadhg Furlong (Leinster) and Connacht’s Finlay Bealham have 68 minutes on the field this year between them. Hugo Keenan (Leinster) broke his hand at the Portugal training camp. And so on, and so on, and so on…
As you’d expect, pre-match Farrell was phlegmatic: always something, opportunity knocks. It is, he added, what it is. What else could he say? Of course this is directly correlated to the small player base – barely 200 professionals across the four provinces, versus England’s 12-strong Premiership league. Ireland has done an outstanding job looking after its talent, but it’s always a case of having to squeeze out the very last drop. On Friday night an Ireland XV suffered a heavy defeat to England A (52-14) underlining the point. All nations have to deal with it, but when you’re starting with such a tight group it’s that much harder.
And if it was only that, that would be plenty. Ireland’s second spot fire is recent form, which has been less than stellar, with losses last November against New Zealand and particularly South Africa, who won for the first time in Dublin, inflicting humiliation at the scrum. After the France match Farrell talked about intensity, taking chances, getting back into the contest faster, keeping things tight – all aspects of the game the Irish have excelled at under his leadership. If even these basics can no longer be relied upon, what’s left? Discipline has also been an issue, and at least on that score there’s been improvement, with a miserly six penalties against France and no cards, compared with the South Africa November debacle, that saw five cards (one 20-minute red, four yellow) and six scrum penalties conceded.
A third cause for concern is the profile of the squad, and an unsettling feeling that Ireland is relying too much on its ageing warriors. Perhaps this is a reflection of the lack of depth of professional players, though it may also be that Andy Farrell has been unusually reliant on familiar players, even when their club form hasn’t been great. Whatever the cause, the numbers tell the tale: Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster), for example, is 33, Tadhg Beirne (Munster) 34 and Tadhg Furlong (Leinster) 33. Connact’s Bundee Aki (of whom more in a moment) is 35. In total the original squad had 13 players aged 30 and above, while France had 11 and England just 9.
The World Cup, to be held here in Australia next year, is approaching fast, which doesn’t leave very much time to address these issues, but is far enough away that all those players will be that much more wrung out, their tyres that much balder and the engine that much more thrashed.
There’s a fourth issue, too: the number 10 spot. Ever since the majestic Johnny Sexton retired a good two years ago now, Ireland have, not surprisingly, struggled to fill his boots. Sam Prendergast (Leinster) got the nod versus France, and did nothing to put to bed the nagging question: him or Jack Crowley (Munster)? When asked, Andy Farrell’s answer was… don’t forget Harry Byrne (Leinster) – which is fair enough, given his recent terrific form away at Leicester, Munster, Bayonne, Connacht and La Rochelle. Naturally the fans want this resolved: who’s number one? But in fact there’s a lot to be said for having options in this most crucial of positions. New Zealanders still shiver when reminded of World Cup 2011, when Daniel Carter didn’t make it through the group stages. The All Blacks actually went on to win, but it was a reminder that you need depth for such an intense campaign. The gulf left by Sexton has encouraged Farrell not to be reliant on a single replacement.
From the kicking tee Prendergast is ahead of Crowley, and his supporters argue he has the higher ceiling – another way of saying he’s not there yet. But his glaring weakness in defence continues to be a concern, and against France his slowness of delivery compared to his opposite number, Matthieu Jalibert, put Ireland on the back foot throughout. When Crowley came on at full back he added much-needed stability.
And this Six Nations opener revealed yet another issue, too: what does Irish rugby look like? We’ve become familiar with instant recycled ball, multiple options from the breakdown and a furious defence that made Scrooge look like a spendthrift. None of that was evident on Thursday night, and although credit must go to France – and in particular the astonishing Louis Bialle-Biarrey – for their ability to maximise opportunities, this was the most alarming sign of all. Admittedly any team can have an off night, and away at the Stade de France being just a shade unready can rapidly unravel into a ruthless demolition. It’s worth pointing out too that the hangover from the Leinster-heavy Lions tour may be a factor, and that last year Ireland did only lose one Six Nations game. Rumours of their demise may be exaggerated. But this is what decline looks like, even if that isn’t what this is.
Ireland have a home fixture next against Italy that should reinject confidence, self-belief and perhaps form and structure, before travelling to the Aviva to take on England, who are on a 12 game unbeaten streak, having seen off Wales Saturday night. For Ireland to win there, they’d need to overturn not only England’s form but their own.
Meanwhile Ireland’s conquerors France look scarily impressive, with the return after extended injury of majestic scrum half Antoine Dupont, who combined nicely with Matthieu Jalibert, dispelling doubts about their partnership. It tells you something when a performance such as that by Bielle-Biarrey wasn’t enough to win him the man of the match award, which went instead to lock Mickael Guillard, who got through a mountain of work.
At the other end of the table, it will be a major shock if Wales win a game, and an even bigger one if perennial disappointers Scotland can finally deliver more than a couple of matches. On the final weekend, expect England to be still in contention, but to come up short away to France. If all that plays out as predicted, the final table will look like this, with an unbeaten France claiming their eleventh Grand Slam.
- France
- England
- Ireland
- Italy
- Scotland
- Wales.
Steve Carey is Treasurer of Bloomsday in Melbourne.
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