Previewing Rugby World Cup 2023
The tenth iteration of the Rugby World Cup is under way in France. Will Ireland finally break their hoodoo? Tinteán’s rugby correspondent Steve Carey brings us this preview.
Almost two months long and 48 matches in all, a mouthwatering French feast for lovers of ‘the game they play in heaven’ is upon us. This year, in the tenth edition of the quadrennial tournament, Ireland stands its best-ever chance of being only the second northern hemisphere side to lift the fussy gold William Webb Ellis trophy. (Question: How do you know the English won the Rugby World Cup in Sydney in 2003? Answer: Don’t worry, they’ll tell you.)
The trouble is… Ireland have form, and not in a good way. Last time around in Japan 2019 they were, as they are now, capable of beating any side in the world, and were widely tipped to go all the way or close to it. Instead, they came unstuck against the host nation in the group, and in the quarters against New Zealand, they floundered, falling apart 46-14. That the English – the English! – defeated the All Blacks in the semi-final was just rubbing Irish noses in the Shizuoka dirt, though at least there was the consolation that they themselves were in turn de-pantsed by South Africa.
Can Ireland go further this time? They should; and if not, now – when? They are ranked number one in the world, they have an experienced team and coach and a crystal clear method, based around a rock solid set piece game, lightning-fast distribution at the breakdown and marauding pods of players coming onto the ball at speed.
There is, however, a considerable-sized fly in the ointment: the legendary luck of the Irish has deserted them. For reasons that no-one now seems able to recall, the draw for the pools was made three years ago, and the result is that Ireland find themselves in a tight group that also includes the much-improved Scotland (ranked fifth) and the rampaging South Africa (second, and winners last time), on the tougher side of the draw that also includes host nation France and the mighty New Zealand. Australia and England, by comparison, have it easy; and although both are stinking up the joint, one or other or both will almost certainly make it out of the group, and then it’s a knockout competition and all bets are off.
So who’s going to win? Well, it sure won’t be Australia or England. How can I be so confident? Well, it takes four things to win a World Cup, plus luck, and neither team possesses more than one of them. Ireland tick all the boxes, barring luck. Let me count the ways…
Firstly, you absolutely have to have an experienced squad, and one easy way to assess that is to count up the caps in the 33-man squad. Ireland have 1,336 – even without Cian Healy, with 125 caps, cruelly injured in their final warm-up game and out of the side. South Africa have 1,319, and New Zealand 1,496. Australia have… get this… 645. That alone puts a massive question mark against them. More specifically, to win you need an experienced, game-winning fly half with a deadly boot. Ireland have Johnny Sexton (113 caps, more than 1,000 points kicked at this level): Australia have Carter Gordon (3 caps), who, unbelievably, isn’t even the kicker for Melbourne Rebels, his Super Rugby side.
Which takes us to the second thing you need to win the World Cup: a settled, high-quality coach, who will invariably put together his own team of specialist coaches and support staff. Australia’s Eddie Jones is vastly experienced, quite possibly the best tournament coach on the planet, but he’s only had the job since the beginning of the year, when he was given the boot by England, who in Steve Borthwick have appointed a coach previously untried at the international level. Wales too have only had their coach in place since the start of the year, and even the mighty Warren Gatland has so far struggled. The year of the World Cup is no time to be changing your coach.
Further, there’s a strong whiff about Eddie’s remarkably young and inexperienced squad that he’s picked a World Cup-winning team… just not this World Cup. The 2027 tournament is back here, in Australia, and comes two years after the British Lions are touring here too. So it looks for all the world as if Eddie is on the opposite of a hiding to nothing, taking full advantage of a free hit: he can get away with poor results now because, well, he’s only just taken over, give a bloke a chance… and then he’s blooded a whole generation ready for future glory.
Meanwhile, his ex-employers England are clueless, playing like men dispossessed, bereft of spirit, unable even to execute the basics well. On paper they look great, but unfortunately for them rugby is played on grass. They have experience to burn, with 1,483 – and it looks like they’ve burnt it, forgetting how to play and how they’re supposed to play. They kick the ball at every opportunity, but ineffectually, and in defence they appear to have lost the playbook. It’s not missing tackles that’s the issue, it’s being in the vicinity to make them. Eddie Jones has just come out and blamed his ex-employers for not bringing new talent through, but the flaw in that argument is that this is a group of players who’ve been playing internationally for half a decade and more. He does have a point, though, because England’s club structure is in crisis, and there’s an essential disconnect between club and country.
And that’s the third thing you need to win: a style of play, usually these days referred to as a ‘brand’ of footy. South Africa: overwhelming violent physicality and a bullying scrum (the piano lifters) securing ball for a sumptuous set of backs (the piano players). France: they don’t need the ball, kick it away and then capitalise on the smallest of errors. New Zealand: high-quality set piece, full-blooded commitment and an uncanny ability to exploit even momentary weakness, particularly when it really matters. You can virtually see them slip up into fifth gear and leave the opposition for dead. Minutes later the game is all but over.
Ireland’s style of rugby has matured over years, and is greatly helped by having more than half the 33-man squad come from Leinster, which plays it too. It involves lightning-fast recycling of the ball and pods of two or three players operating together, offering multiple options. To that they’ve added licence for spontaneity, playing what’s in front of you. It’s not unplayable: just very nearly. You know what they’re going to do, and can even glimpse at least some of their options. It just unfolds so fast there’s no way to stop it. This highly evolved and detailed style of play is an absolute joy to watch when it’s firing, and perhaps its only downside is its very intricacy. If the team has an off day, there’s no Plan B to fall back on. But there’s that if: for Ireland, fortunately, off days when it matters have been vanishingly rare since January 2020 when Andy Farrell, already part of the existing set-up, took the reins.
Australia, England and Wales all lack a ‘brand,’ since it takes time to develop and all three sides have only recently changed coaches. And that’s also why they lack the fourth factor, momentum. Winning is a habit, and Ireland have it in spades, as do France and South Africa. New Zealand have been stuttery, but you’d be a fool to write off the team that’s won this thing three times (as have South Africa).
So it comes down to four teams: Ireland, France, New Zealand and South Africa can win it, and you can bet your house that neither Australia nor England will. However, there’s plentiful evidence that the gap between the haves and the have-nots is closing rapidly. Expect the unexpected from the likes of Argentina, Fiji and even Samoa. It promises to be the most open World Cup, and the ever-present risk of red cards may yet play a part.
If I had to pick one, my bet would be South Africa. But Ireland will take some stopping. Bring it on!
When, where, how do I watch?
The World Cup starts with the host FRANCE playing the reigning champions NEW ZEALAND at 5.15am Saturday 9 September (all times AEST). The final – which may very well be these two teams again – is at 6am on Sunday 28 October.
To watch in Australia: all matches are live on Stan Sport, with Channel Nine showing Australia’s games and the final.
The Pools
Two go through from each Pool into the knockout stages; I’ve put them in the order I predict they’ll finish
Pool A: New Zealand, France, Italy, Uruguay, Namibia
Pool B: Ireland, South Africa, Scotland, Tonga, Romania
Pool C: Wales, Australia, Fiji, Georgia, Portugal
Pool D: Argentina, Japan, England, Samoa, Chile.
If you want to play ‘Who’s going to win and why it certainly won’t be England?’ this is a very good predictor.
Steve Carey
Steve is the Producer and Treasurer of Bloomsday in Melbourne, loves his rugby union and says he can sleep when he’s dead.
Tinteán 
I enjoyed that astute commentary. Thanks Steve! Ronan